北大经院工作坊第1291场
1、Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Trade Policy: A Quantitative Analysis
2、Initial Conditions and the Big Push
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
（北大国发院）薛思帆
时间：2026年5月18日（周一）9:30-10:30
地点：HAHA体育哈哈体育305会议室
一、
主讲人：樊海潮（复旦大学哈哈体育教授）
题目：Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Trade Policy: A Quantitative Analysis
主讲人简介：
樊海潮，复旦大学哈哈体育教授、博士生导师。 研究领域为国际贸易理论与实证、中国经济。领衔主持国家级人才项目、自科应急项目、重点项目、面上项目以及社科重大专项等。部分研究成果被美国经济研究局（NBER）推介，并入选经济学与商学全球前1% ESI高引论文。现任Annals of Economics and Finance联合主编；Review of International Economics等多个期刊的副主编以及China Economic Review等多个期刊的特刊主编。
摘要：
The European Union (EU)) has introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to curb carbon leakage and incentivize global climate policy alignment. We develop a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model featuring input-output linkages, carbon supply chains, and global emission externalities to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of the EU’s CBAM. Our results show that unilateral implementation modestly reduces global emissions due to carbon leakage through global energy markets. Global welfare improves marginally when environmental benefits are accounted for. When other countries respond optimally, strategic carbon policy adjustments under a non-cooperative Nash equilibrium enhance global emission reductions by mitigating both carbon leakage and free-riding. Under a cooperative equilibrium with Nash bargaining, multilateral negotiations yield substantial welfare and environmental gains, with the CBAM functioning as an effective enforcement device that raises the cost of disagreement and fosters deeper global climate cooperation.
二、
主讲人：黎志敏（HAHA体育汇丰商学院长聘副教授）
题目：Initial Conditions and the Big Push
主讲人简介：
Zhimin Li is a tenured Associate Professor at Peking University HSBC Business School. He received his Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley. His research lies at the intersection of international and development economics. He studies how global and domestic forces—such as capital flows, trade and industrial policy, and institutional change—shape economic outcomes at the micro and aggregate levels.
摘要：
This paper examines the long-run impact of temporary WWII spending on U.S. economic geography. Our empirical results show positive long-term effects on overall population and manufacturing activity only in counties with initially low manufacturing employment. Motivated by these findings, we develop a multisector economic geography model that features external economies of scale in manufacturing with non-constant elasticity. We calibrate the model and show that an S-shaped scale function in which sizable scale economies are limited to locations below 1500 manufacturing workers matches the data well. We use the calibrated model to reevaluate how temporary WWII spending shaped the evolution of U.S. postwar economic geography. Despite the presence of "big push" dynamics and multiple steady states, the aggregate effects of WWII spending on long-run outcomes are limited due to the restricted domain over which coordination failures operate.
北大经院工作坊第1292场
Firm Sorting without Agglomeration
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：Mai Wo（Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, Yale University）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威
（北大国发）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
（北大光华）张晓波、仇心诚
时间：2026年5月20日（周三）10:30-12:00
地点：HAHA体育国家发展研究院承泽园249教室
主讲人简介：
Mai Wo is a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at Yale University. His research focuses on innovation, geopolitics, and spatial economics. He is the recipient of the Carl Arvid Anderson Prize Fellowship in Economics. His research has been presented or is scheduled to be presented at the NBER Summer Institute (2025 IEG, 2026 IFMD), the NBER Spring ITI 2026, the Society for Economic Dynamics 2026, and the Cowles conference 2026.
摘要：
This paper develops a neoclassical theory of firm spatial sorting in which more productive firms locate in larger cities even in the absence of agglomeration externalities or market frictions. The core mechanism operates through relative factor prices: when labor and intermediate inputs are complements and productivity is labor-augmenting, spatial variation in relative wages gives rise to a unique pure-sorting equilibrium with spatial positive assortative matching. The resulting market equilibrium is efficient. The framework is then extended to incorporate agglomeration externalities and to characterize optimal place-based policy, showing that pecuniary sorting dampens optimal subsidies and introduces a progressive force in policy design. Using Chinese firm-level tax data, key technology parameters are estimated. Quantitatively, relative price mechanism alone account for approximately 40% of observed firm spatial sorting in the data.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
